Can Poland Benefit from American Tariffs?
- Oprac. M.K.
- Kategoria: English zone
The significant tariffs imposed by the Donald Trump administration on goods from the European Union and China could create substantial turbulence in the Polish economy, but there is potential hidden in this pressure. Experts from Fulfilio, a logistics service provider for e-commerce, indicate that Poland, as an attractive production and logistics location, may attract investors fleeing the rising costs of Western Europe. Moreover, thanks to its well-developed infrastructure and competencies in e-commerce handling, Poland has the opportunity to become a key transit hub for Chinese goods destined for the American market. The end of the T86 rule is also significant for Poland. Commentary is provided by Arkadiusz Filipowski, CEO of Fulfilio.
The trade war initiated by the Donald Trump administration, although seemingly unfavorable for global trade at first glance, may create a unique strategic opportunity for Poland. Due to its geographical location, well-developed logistics infrastructure, and expertise in e-commerce handling, Poland has the chance to become a key transit hub for Chinese goods headed to the American market. Already, there is increasing interest from Chinese operators in expanding supply chains using Polish logistics centers and local partners. However, this is not only an opportunity for the development of the Polish logistics sector but also a good time to attract new investments in industrial real estate and e-commerce services. It is worth seizing this moment to become a main link in the global supply chain.
In the context of the American President's pricing policy, it is worth mentioning the T86 rule, which allowed duty-free imports into the United States of shipments valued up to $800. Over the past few years, it significantly contributed to the increase in the volume of small parcels entering the American market, especially from China. Although the regulation itself is not the main focus of current changes, its modifications further complicate the picture of international trade, prompting sellers to seek new, more cost-effective distribution channels. The number of parcels under T86 grew from 139 million in 2015 to approximately 1.36 billion in 2024. Over 60% of them came from China.
In the dynamic field of cross-border e-commerce, recent shifts in American trade policy, including changes to T86, have sent shockwaves through the industry. Every change in tariff policy, especially one made overnight, is like a stone thrown into the lake of cross-border e-commerce, causing waves that affect every link from the supply chain to the end sale. Sellers, from small and medium-sized enterprises relying on direct shipping of small packages to large corporations with overseas warehouses, are now closely monitoring policy trends and actively seeking countermeasures.
Fluctuations in American customs policy, including uncertainty around the T86 rule, create new conditions for cross-border trade. Poland could emerge victorious in this game in three key areas.
First, for the fulfillment sector, this means increased demand for warehousing, packaging, and order fulfillment services, especially from platforms and sellers aiming to bypass direct shipments from China to the USA.
Second, the growing significance of Poland as a buffer in transcontinental trade could trigger a boom in the warehouse and courier market, benefiting industrial real estate operators, logistics companies, and fulfillment service providers like Fulfilio. This is a natural consequence of global efforts to find solutions that avoid the direct costs of new tariffs.
Finally, consumers themselves would also benefit, especially those looking for the lowest prices. The influx of cheap Chinese products stored and shipped from Poland would mean greater price competition in e-commerce.
Dynamic market changes may come with certain challenges. The side effects could be severe for local retailers. With the influx of cheap Chinese products that will be stored and shipped from Poland, price pressure on domestic e-sellers - especially those based on platforms like Allegro - will increase significantly. Companies that cannot compete on price will have to intensify investments in quality, customer service, and branding. The side effect may be further market stratification - with low-quality, attractively priced suppliers dominating one side, and niches for premium brands and value-added products on the other. Poland can benefit from the new wave of American protectionism if it leverages its infrastructure and logistics strengths appropriately. As Fulfilio, we are already preparing for the growing demand from international partners and are analyzing scenarios for further development of our operational network. For us, this is not just an opportunity but almost an obligation to respond to global challenges with a flexible and scalable operational model.