Record Number of Lease Renewals on the Polish Warehouse Market

The first half of 2025 was a period of limited activity in the European warehouse and logistics market. Between January and June, a total of 11 million sq m of space was leased across the continent – about 20% below the five-year average for this period. Persistently high financing costs and geopolitical uncertainties mean that tenants are cautious in making expansion decisions in the short term. Developers are also taking a wait-and-see approach – the relatively high vacancy rate (6%) makes them reluctant to launch new projects.

Against the backdrop of Europe struggling with an economic slowdown, Poland stands out positively in terms of long-term economic forecasts. According to Oxford Economics, GDP growth in Poland is expected to reach 3.3% in 2025 and 3.8% in 2026. These figures significantly exceed projections for the eurozone, which are 1.1% and 1.5%, respectively. According to JLL experts, temporary investment constraints will be offset by favorable long-term fundamentals of stable growth and economic development.

Demand: Record Number of Renewals

In the first six months of 2025, net demand for warehouse space in Poland reached 1.36 million sq m. This result – 17% lower than in the same period last year – reflects the general European trend. However, it is worth noting that during this period, a record number of tenants decided to extend their existing leases. Renegotiations in H1 2025 totaled 1.6 million sq m – an unprecedented result in the history of the Polish market. Combining new leases with renewals, gross demand reached almost 3 million sq m, just 6% below the record-breaking first half of 2021.

The historically highest renewal volume is the result of companies’ caution in uncertain times, but also a natural consequence of leases signed during the record years of 2021–2022 coming to an end. Sale & leaseback transactions are also gaining importance, enabling companies to free up capital tied in real estate. As a result, total demand for warehouse space remained close to historical highs, showing that the Polish warehouse market remains exceptionally resilient to challenging economic conditions – comments Mateusz Iłowiecki, Director, Industrial Agency, JLL.

Vacancies: Strong Fragmentation

The vacancy rate remained relatively stable, standing at around 8.1% at the end of Q2 2025, which translates into 2.95 million sq m of available warehouse space. However, it is worth noting that immediately available space is highly fragmented across various facilities and modules – at the end of Q2 2025, only 15 single units of 30,000 sq m or more were available on the market. Availability is also uneven in terms of location: for example, the highest vacancy rates were recorded in Wrocław (10.3%) and Warsaw (over 6%), while in smaller markets such as Kraków, Szczecin, Opole, Olsztyn, or Białystok, the rate was below 3.5%.

Supply: 1.47 Million sq m Under Construction

At the end of June 2025, the Polish market had a total of 36.6 million sq m of existing warehouse space. In the first half of the year, it expanded by another 1.15 million sq m, a figure comparable to new supply in the same period last year. The largest amounts of new space were delivered in Wrocław and Upper Silesia, where developers completed 344,000 and 256,000 sq m, respectively. Additionally, both Warsaw and Szczecin saw new supply exceeding 100,000 sq m.

We are also observing stability in terms of new projects started by developers. At the end of June 2025, the total area under construction amounted to 1.47 million sq m, representing about a 7% increase compared to the end of Q1. Speculative activity accounted for more than 600,000 sq m, also showing a slight increase. The largest amount of new space, over 400,000 sq m, is currently being built in Warsaw. Upper Silesia, the Tri-City, and Central Poland also recorded over 150,000 sq m under construction. Developer activity, however, decreased in Wrocław, which is facing a double-digit vacancy rate - says Mateusz Polkowski, Head of Research & Consultancy, JLL.

Rents: Little Change

Limited developer activity contributed to the stabilization of rental rates, which remained largely unchanged in H1 2025. Rents for suburban logistics parks within the “Big Five” markets (Warsaw, Upper Silesia, Central Poland, Wrocław, and Poznań) ranged from €3.5 to €5.5 per sq m per month. Urban locations maintained rates of up to €8 per sq m per month, although in selected prime Warsaw projects they were even higher.

Investment Market: Strong Growth in Activity

The warehouse sector remains the preferred choice for entities investing in Poland’s commercial real estate market. In H1 2025, industrial investment volume reached €694 million, which was 140% higher than in the same period last year. This was also the best H1 result since 2021. Notably, this figure does not include the large-scale global corporate acquisition of GLP Capital Partners Limited by Ares Management Corporation, which affected ownership structures of numerous industrial parks worldwide, including assets in Poland.

One strong trend emerging this year is the growing number of sale & leaseback transactions. They are increasingly popular with both investors and tenants who, in the context of expensive financing, are looking for ways to quickly free up capital from owned assets. Such agreements, through long-term lease commitments, guarantee stable cash flows - comments Michał Reszka, Senior Consultant, Capital Markets, JLL.

A prime example is the record transaction in which Eko Okna sold two modern facilities totaling 264,000 sq m to Realty Income Corporation. This was the largest sale & leaseback deal in the entire history of Central and Eastern Europe. The second-largest transaction was the acquisition of LPP’s distribution center in Bydgoszcz by Reico Long Lease Fund. Another significant deal involved four industrial assets located in Gliwice, Stanowice, Rybnik, and Gorzyce, purchased by Adventum International, a Hungarian investor that recently launched its subfund focused on industrial investments.