Maturity of the Polish warehouse market in 2025

According to the latest report by Poland’s largest commercial real estate advisory firm, AXI IMMO, titled “Warehouse Market in Poland 2025”, the industrial and logistics sector maintained a strong position despite moderate slowdown in the first half of the year. By the end of 2025, total modern warehouse stock reached 36.58 million sq m, while new supply declined to 1.68 million sq m. 

Gross demand rose to 6.64 million sq m, the third-highest result in the history of the market, and the vacancy rate remained stable at 7.4%. In the investment market, the warehouse sector recorded the second-largest result with transactions totalling EUR 1.5 billion. 

The warehouse sector is entering a phase of greater selectivity. We are observing a high share of renegotiations in demand structure, controlled speculative supply and a concentration of investments in the most liquid markets such as Mazovia, Silesia and the Łódź region. At the same time, cross-border hubs and ports such as the Tri-City and Szczecin are gaining importance, supported by transport infrastructure development. In 2026, the key drivers for sector growth will be an improvement in European industrial activity and domestic consumption - says Monika Rykowska, Head of Research and Market Analysis at AXI IMMO.

Demand: third-highest result in market history

In 2025, the industrial and logistics market recorded 6.64 million sq m of leased space (+14% y/y). Renegotiations reached a record 3.46 million sq m, accounting for 52% of total demand (+10 percentage points y/y). The highest tenant activity was recorded in the Mazowieckie region (1.41 million sq m), Łódzkie (1.17 million sq m) and Śląskie (1.07 million sq m).

Net demand amounted to 3.18 million sq m (-6% y/y), with Mazowieckie (729,000 sq m), Łódzkie (475,000 sq m) and Dolnośląskie (464,000 sq m) among the leading markets. Major transactions in 2025 included the extension and expansion by Agata Meble at Mapletree Piotrków II (128,200 sq m), a lease extension of 78,100 sq m by ID Logistics at P3 Wrocław II, a new lease of 67,800 sq m by a 3PL company at 7R Park Gdańsk III, and a new agreement signed by automotive company Schaeffler at Prologis Park Ujazd (63,400 sq m).

The demand structure in 2025 confirms the increasing maturity of the Polish market. Renegotiations of five-year leases signed in 2021–2022 became the dominant component of tenant activity. In 2026, new demand will result from expansion in selected sectors as well as the need to consolidate or relocate space to optimise operating costs. We see stronger activity from retail, e-commerce and distribution companies, with moderate recovery among logistics operators - comments Anna Głowacz, Head of Industrial and Logistics Agency at AXI IMMO.

Supply: lowest level since 2016

By the end of December 2025, total modern warehouse stock in Poland reached 36.58 million sq m (+6% y/y). At the same time, new supply fell to 1.68 million sq m (-35% y/y), marking the lowest level since 2016.

Among the largest new projects were P3 Wrocław (95,000 sq m) in Lower Silesia and Hillwood Poznań-Czempiń (53,700 sq m) in Greater Poland. Outside the main markets, significant developments included 7R Park Lublin (57,500 sq m) and Panattoni Park Szczecin-Dunikowo (54,400 sq m).

Total space under construction reached 1.79 million sq m (+2% y/y), with speculative development limited to 38.6% (690,000 sq m). Most projects are being developed in Mazowieckie (648,000 sq m), Pomorskie (221,000 sq m) and Śląskie (192,000 sq m). Developers typically require pre-lease agreements covering 40–50% of the project before starting construction.

The vacancy rate stood at 7.4% at the end of 2025 (-0.1 percentage points y/y). The lowest vacancy levels were recorded in Zachodniopomorskie (1.2%) and Małopolskie (2.6%), while the largest increase was noted in Śląskie (+2.3 percentage points y/y). Base rents in big-box projects remained within the range of EUR 3.6–6.0 per sq m per month, with effective rents between EUR 3.0–4.5. Competition increasingly focused on incentive packages, including one or two months of rent-free periods per year of lease.

Investment market: EUR 1.5 billion and strong sale-and-leaseback activity

Investment transactions in the industrial and logistics sector reached EUR 1.5 billion (+15% y/y), accounting for 34% of total investment volume in Poland and representing the second-largest share among commercial real estate sectors. Single-asset transactions and sale-and-leaseback deals dominated the market, with investors from the United States and the Czech Republic playing a significant role.

The warehouse sector remains one of the most stable segments of the investment market. In 2025 we observed a clear increase in sale-and-leaseback transactions, reflecting companies’ need to release capital tied up in real estate. In 2026 we expect further liquidity improvement and slight compression of prime yields for assets with long-term leases - says Grzegorz Chmielak, Head of Capital Markets at AXI IMMO.

Forecast for 2026

AXI IMMO analysts expect stable levels of new supply, a gradual decline in vacancy rates and selective rental growth in the best locations. Renegotiations will remain a dominant component of demand, while new developments will largely be linked to expansions and consolidation of warehouse space.

The warehouse market in Poland confirmed its maturity and resilience to economic fluctuations in 2025. Strong demand, controlled supply and growing investor activity create solid foundations for further sector development. We expect continued growth in investment transaction volumes, including portfolio deals. In 2026, key factors will include infrastructure investment, nearshoring and the increasing importance of technical quality and ESG standards. Poland remains one of the most promising warehouse markets in Europe - concludes Renata Osiecka, Managing Partner and Owner at AXI IMMO.