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Selected problems of maritime traffic risk modelling

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Abstract: The paper addresses selected problems of marine traffic risk modelling, in respect to collision and grounding probability modelling. Two original models are presented, and a case study regarding ships navigating in selected areas of Gulf of Finland in ice free conditions is putting forward.
Probability of vessel colliding is assessed by means of Minimum Distance To Collision (MDTC) based model. The model defines in a novel way the collision zone, using mathematical ship motion model, and recognizes traffic flow as non homogeneous process, unlike other existing models. Calculations presented address waterways crossing between Helsinki and
Tallinn, where dense cross traffic during certain hours is observed. Risk profile for a certain period of a day is presented.
For probability of grounding a new approach is proposed, which utilizes the gravity model, where spatial interactions between objects in different locations are proportional to their respective importance divided by their distance. A ship at a seaway and navigational obstructions may be perceived as interacting objects and their repulsion may be modelled by a sort of gravity formulation.
Maritime traffic risk modelling is a complex process, which takes into account several aspects, integrating different scientific domains, usually being very remote one from another.
Risk analysis consists of predicting ship accident probability, which means collisions and groundings. These depend on geographical location of analyzed area, traffic composition, weather conditions and time of the day. Statistics revealed that these two main types of accidents are caused mostly by human inappropriate actions, therefore knowledge about
human behaviour during collision avoidance and grounding avoidance processes is essential here.
Knowing the probability of an accident, one should assess the consequences of these.
Depending on a ship type involved in an accident, results may be different. In case of a tanker as a potential outcome of an accident, one may suspect an oil spill, resulting in environmental loss. In case of a passenger vessel facing an accident, the highest hazard considered is loss of human lives.
This paper focuses of chosen aspects of marine traffic risk modelling, taking as example marine traffic in the Gulf of Finland. (...)

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Źródło: Czasopismo Logistyka

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