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A risk model for assessing the ship sinkability in uncertain conditions

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Abstract: The paper concerns the ship safety in damaged conditions. The existing methods of safety assessment of ships in damaged conditions are devoted to design and are very difficult to apply in operational conditions. A method based on the risk and safety assessment of ships in damaged conditions is briefly presented in the paper. The level of risk is the measure of safety. The method applies the ship performance approach together with the risk assessment. The risk analysis is based on application of the matrix type risk model. The risk model enables to take into account the uncertainties connected with the possible scenarios of an accident consisting of combinations of the hazards, intermediate events, additional events (releases) and consequences.
1. INTRODUCTION
The paper presents a few problems regarding a method of risk and safety assessment of ships in damaged conditions where the key issue concerns the risk model. This model should take into account the uncertainties connected with the possible scenarios of an accident. The scenarios consist of combinations of hazards, intermediate events, additional events and consequences. The research is connected with development of a performanceoriented risk-based method for assessment of safety of ships in damaged conditions [1].
The current methods of assessment of safety of ships in damaged conditions are mainly based on the regulations included in the SOLAS convention (Chapter II-1) [2][3]. These methods are more directed towards solving the design problems than those connected with operation or salvage. It follows from many reasons. First of all, these methods are prescriptive in their character. Generally, these methods are based on the probabilistic approach to safety but in some cases the semi-probabilistic components are included.
These methods do not take into account all the possible scenarios of an accident.
Application of some of these methods to certain types of ships e.g. car-carriers, ro-ro vessels or passenger ships may lead to insufficient level of safety or provide unnecessary design or operational restrictions.
The following methods rely on the regulations included in the SOLAS convention and may be considered for application to the design, operational and salvage purposes. (...)

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Źródło: Czasopismo Logistyka

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